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May 21, 2015

Pwnn Wagers' greatest hit

For my money, it was his awful step back looking for a reason to penalize Richt at Auburn in 2013.
What's your best worst Wagers call?

Advanced stats don't lie, part 2...UGA projected 5th in FEI

Yesterday, Connelly's stats had us 3rd. Today, Fremeau has us 5th. Fremeau's stats look solely at game performance, I have to assume adjusted for returning starters, ect.

I reached out to get a sense of how his formula works:

The projected top ten:
  1. Ohio State
  2. Alabama
  3. Oregon
  4. Baylor
  5. Georiga
  6. UCLA
  7. FSU
  8. Notre Dame
  9. TCU
  10. Michigan State
As I mention in yesterday's post, this isn't a prediction of how the season will end. It is a projection of what should happen, factoring actual, FBS vs. FBS non-garbage time plays.

PS. If you are into advanced stats, Connelly and Fremeau are the go to guys.

May 20, 2015

Advanced stats don't lie....UGA projected 3rd in S&P+

Bill Connelly expresses surprise at UGA being there...
The most surprising teams in the top 10: Georgia, Ole Miss, and UCLA. Well, Georgia being third is surprising. I included each set of rankings so you could understand what the numbers see. Georgia has been one of the most consistently awesome teams in the country (fourth in weighted five-year history) and benefits from that here.
I can't say I disagree with him, though we did well in his stats last year. In fact, UGA was easily the most confusing team for him to figure out last year, something he mentioned on more than one occasion. Based on his stats, Georgia will be a favorite in every game they play this year, save two, Alabama and Auburn.

The top ten:
Without further adieu, here are the 2015 projections. Analysis below the table.

ConfProj. S&P+Rk2014 RkProj. change5-year performanceReturning starters impactRecruiting impact
Ohio StateBig Ten24.021-1219
Ole MissSEC18.266014221
Michigan StateBig Ten17.2911281322
OklahomaBig 1217.010133121516

This is a predictor of what will happen, it is, especially in May, a look at what should happen.  Don't book flights to Arizona yet.


May 8, 2015

Golson in the mix at UGA?


Everett Golson certainly brings some experience to the table, but the article notes his spotty academic record. What it didn't talk about was his game performances, which went from pretty good to down right horrifying (for a more expansive treatment, see his game against Arizona State, where I'm pretty sure he just turned the ball over again).

Still, I can see him transferring. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly didn't exactly mince words about his play during the season. Even if he's the starter this fall, which it appears he would be, he may have to have a spectacular season to keep from getting the hook at any given time.

I guess South Carolina makes more sense because they have a younger QB stepping in to the starting role. The upside for UGA is that there is a new offensive coordinator, and less guess work about what our offense will be like, considering our RB situation.

Though after playing for Kelly, I'd have to say playing for Richt over Spurrier would be a nice change, too.


April 30, 2015

Lorenzo Mauldin story

Great human interest story about Louisville DE Lorenzo Mauldin and his path to the NFL draft. He's from Atlanta, grew up in foster care and is a testament to the value of the little things people can do that have a big future impact on the life of kids.

April 29, 2015

Updated IPF location

Dasher has an update:
@AnthonyDasher1: ICYMI, AD Greg McGarity offered this update Tuesday night on Georgia's new IPF

So Hoke Smith and environs are safe.

April 27, 2015

Bulldog blogger roundtable, final

Today, we are talking about what makes a successful season. Plenty of winning the East thoughts there.

As a side note, I like Bernie's comment on everyone being in the same page.

April 24, 2015

Bulldog Bloggers Roundtable, Part 3: Defense

Today, we look at our concerns for the defense.


Cam Forte to transfer

Congrats to Cam Forte, who will graduate this summer and transfer to play basketball as a graduate.  Coach Fox has worked hard to make sure his players know that graduation is a key component of playing basketball for him at Georgia, and Cam is a good example.

Good luck, Cam.


April 23, 2015

Bulldog Bloggers Roundtable, part 2

We discuss the receivers.

April 22, 2015

College Football Zealots Bulldog Roundtable

Kevin asked me, Bernie, Blutarsky, and Greg Poole some questions. We answered them. Simple enough.
I'll post all of my responses in one post after he gets all the questions posted. You can read the first question and the responses here.

March 20, 2015

Don't bet against NCAA tourney Tom Izzo

Hey, I laid out how we could win. I always thought we'd lose if we didn't hit the shots from the paint, especially layups.

I'm bummed we lost this game. We fought back against a better, more athletic team. We probably just missed another layup or put back.

Thanks to Neme, Marcus, and Taylor for being Damn Good Dawgs.

March 19, 2015

UGA's chances of winning against Michigan State

As I stated the other day, this is a tough draw for the Dawgs. Michigan State is a 5 seed playing in a 7 seed spot.  That doesn't mean all is lost, but I sure would feel more confident if we drew VCU or Iowa. That being said, I still think we have a legit chance to win.

Michigan State loves to run. Big Ten hoops is predicated on the same type of basketball Fox likes to play. We'll not face the bog down hack and pull we saw against South Carolina/Auburn/Tennessee/Mississippi State. Now, Michigan State loves to run. While our depth concerns me, the one thing that running teams have trouble with is getting back on defense and impatience with teams that like to move the ball around and use the shot clock.

As frustrating as UGA's offense can be, the one huge bonus it gives you is that when you are holding the ball, the other team cannot score. Mark Fox preaches a nearly Norman Dale'esque level of passing pre-shot. There is a method to that madness, especially against a team that would be perfectly happy with a 20 second shot clock.

Related to that is running teams have  tendency to get aggressive on defense at bad times.

Virtually no one beyond Mark Bradley is giving Georgia a chance in this game, for lots of good basketball reasons. Among the reasons they shouldn't discount UGA is #SECbasketballfever, which I believe most of them are. Arkansas is most like Michigan State in the SEC. We've faced that kind of running team in Kentucky (though built very differently). 

If the Spartans put us on the line 20 times, which I think they do, and we hit 70% of our free throws, which I think we will, we win.

Tip is tomorrow at 12:40pm on TruTV.

March 16, 2015

Andy Landers has retired

This year has to have been one of the hardest of his career, with the injuries and promise that was lost due to them.

He ends his career with 944 total wins, 862 of them at UGA. He's taken teams to eight final fours, been in the Sweet 16 in 20 of his 36 season. We are one of only three programs to have never posted a losing season in women's basketball since it became an NCAA sport.

Georgia Sports Blog thanks Coach Landers for all he's done for UGA athletics. He's a Damn Good Dawg that has given his heart and soul to the Bulldogs.


March 15, 2015

UGA gets 10 seed; to face Michigan State in Charlotte

This morning, I pondered us getting a ten seed, noting the upside of us matching up with a seven seed that isn't that much better with us. The one thing I didn't note is that if they underseed that seven....

Which it sure looks like they did. Michigan State finished the B1.5G as the third a conference with seven teams that made the field, and too one seed Wisconsin to OT in the B1.5G championship. To give you an idea, North Carolina and Georgetown both had similar records, RPI profiles, and good wins/bad losses, but are seeded 4th. Our records look the same, both in conference and out of conference, but two things stand way out about Michigan State vis a vis Georgia: how well they've played the past month (7-3, with two of those losses coming to Wisconsin) and how much better their wins look (four over top 50 RPI, including three in those past ten games.

That doesn't mean UGA is doomed, but it does mean we have a much tougher 7 seed in Michigan State than say Iowa or VCU.

UGA faces Michigan State 12:40pm Friday on TruTV.

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